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Oil prices surged by over 2%, with the primary catalyst being OPEC+’s decision to significantly slow its pace of production increases for October 2025. The group announced it would raise output by only 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), a figure that was much smaller than the market had anticipated.
This unexpectedly conservative stance marks a sharp reversal from the more substantial hikes of recent months, such as the approximately 555,000 bpd increases in August and September. This restrained approach has alleviated fears of a looming supply glut and signaled to traders that the producers’ group is keen on defending prices.
Renewed geopolitical tensions and rising oil price
Further bolstering this upward price trend are renewed geopolitical tensions. A recent Russian attack on Kyiv has increased the likelihood of additional sanctions from the United States and the European Union. The prospect of these measures potentially targeting Russia’s energy exports provides a secondary layer of support for oil prices, adding to supply disruption concerns.
Looking ahead, the modest October hike buys time for bulls, but the baseline stays soft: the IEA now pegs 2025 demand growth near 680 kb/d, while the EIA expects inventory builds and Brent below $60/bbl in 4Q25. In this regard, a durable upside likely requires tougher Russia sanctions or OPEC+ slowing the unwind or cutting production.
